A Report from a meeting on the 4see model Essay

A Report from a meeting on the 4see model - Essay Example Representatives present †¢ Simon Roberts-Director Foresight Innovation and Incubation Group, Arup. †¢ Nigel Goddard a Director in School of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh †¢ Colin Axon - A Senior Researcher at School of Engineering and Design in Brunel University, Uxbridge, †¢ Barney Foran - Institute of Land Water and Society, Charles Strut University †¢ Benjamin Warr-Director of Environmental Services and Senior Environmental Scientist, GeoQuest Ltd, Modeling paradigm Mr. Goddard took the attendees through the modeling paradigm of the 4see model. He informed members that it differs from other macroeconomic modeling methods. It expresses constraints between components of the macro economy as equations which describe how they affect each other, and then uses iterative time-stepped simulation to evolve the model of the system forward in time. A key principle in 4see modeling is handling of distinctly different classes of flows. The full 4see- GB mo del of the UK economy includes ten distinct flows which are distinguished by having differing characteristics and being non-substitutable to each other in the short term. (Roberts) Modeling principles Mr. Goddard further went on to explain that the approach to creating the model follows a simple principle: that supply follows demand but is constrained in the short term by physical infrastructure or the inputs needed for output. There were concerns on the deterministic approach and corrective approach. Mr. Goddard went on to say that deterministic approach controls the need for inputs. Where as reconciliation between demands on the right and supply of the distinct separate flows is by the corrective approach. Finally, most of the final demand in the model is...The 4see model also identified process flows. The variables of major interest, such as flows of goods and services, were not modeled as stocks and flows in the system dynamics sense, but were assumed to be consumed in the same time-period in which they were produced - there is no modeling of inventory. In system dynamics terms, they we considered being auxiliary variables. The identified fixed capital stocks in the economy with the system dynamics stock concept. This was a reflection of the categorical difference in 4seemodels between fixed capital stocks and other types of stocks such as inventories.(Roberts).We presented a macro-economic modeling framework based on deterministic and corrective approaches that enabled us to reproduce the historical data with a small number of exogenous parameters. The model was grounded in standard national macroeconomic data that conformed to international conventions of data-holding and duration.